Serve+1: Why the Third Shot Is Where the Modern Game Is Decided

The serve is the most-coached shot in tennis. The return is increasingly recognized as critical. But between them sits a third shot — the server’s first ball after the return — that decides the point at the professional level more often than either of the other two. That shot is the serve+1, and it is the single most leveraged pattern in modern tennis tactics.

This article is the case for treating the serve and the next shot as a single tactical unit rather than two separate strokes.

What “Serve+1” Means

Serve+1 is the server’s third shot of the point — the serve being shot one, the return being shot two, the next ball being shot three (the “+1” after the serve). At the professional level, more than 60% of points end within the first three shots of the rally. Of those, a significant fraction end with the server’s third shot — either as a clean winner or as the shot that produces an error on the next return.

The pattern is universal in the modern game. Watch any current top-ten player and count their attempting third-shot patterns: a high percentage of them follow a structure of “serve here, then forehand there.” The third shot is rarely an accident. It is the planned punctuation of the serve’s setup.

Why the Third Shot Matters So Much

Three structural reasons.

Reason 1: The return is constrained. A well-placed first serve forces the returner to make a defensive shot — often weak in depth, weak in pace, or limited in angle. The server’s third shot is hit against a ball that is, on average, easier to attack than a typical rally ball.

Reason 2: The server’s body is naturally positioned. After the serve motion, the server’s body weight is moving slightly forward and the racquet is on the forehand side. A right-handed server who has just served wide to the deuce court is naturally positioned to hit a forehand into the open ad court — the geometry sets up the third shot.

Reason 3: The opponent is recovering. The returner has just executed an explosive return and is recovering from the position they took it from. They are not yet in optimal court coverage position when the third shot is being hit. The server has a brief temporal advantage that the third shot is designed to exploit.

The combined effect: the third shot is hit with the server’s body in good position, against a usually-weak ball, with the opponent slightly out of position. It is the single highest-percentage attacking opportunity in any given service game.

The Canonical Serve+1 Patterns

Several specific serve+1 patterns recur often enough at the elite level to deserve naming:

Pattern A: Wide serve, forehand into open court. Server hits a wide serve to the deuce or ad court, returner is pulled wide and returns weakly to the center or short. Server hits a forehand to the opposite corner. The geometry creates a long diagonal forehand for the server and a sprinting recovery for the returner.

Pattern B: T-serve, forehand into the body or weaker corner. Server hits a serve at the T (down the middle), pulling the returner to the center. Server’s forehand finishes into the opponent’s weaker corner — typically the backhand. The pattern works particularly well against returners who shade toward their forehand.

Pattern C: Body serve, jam-and-attack. Server aims at the returner’s body. The returner struggles to swing freely and produces a short or weak ball. Server attacks the next shot aggressively — usually with a forehand from the inside of the court.

Pattern D: Kick serve to the backhand, forehand into the open court. Server kicks a high-bouncing ball to the returner’s backhand, forcing a defensive lifted return. Server steps in and hits a forehand into the open court.

Pattern E: Slice serve wide, body forehand. Server slices a serve wide to pull the returner off the court. Server’s next shot is into the body of the recovering returner — a short, sharp forehand that the returner cannot easily defend.

Watching a professional player carefully reveals that almost every service game involves attempts at three or four of these patterns. The server is not improvising — they are running a small playbook.

What Amateurs Get Wrong

In coaching practice, three errors recur in amateur attempts at serve+1.

Error 1: Treating serve and next shot as separate. Most amateurs hit the serve, see what comes back, and then react. They have no plan for what they will do with the third ball. As a result, they hit good serves and then squander the setup with reactive, defensive third shots.

The fix: before each service point, decide what the third shot will be. “Wide serve, forehand to the deuce corner.” Commit to the pattern. If the return doesn’t match your plan, then adapt — but start with a plan.

Error 2: Choosing third-shot targets without geometry. Amateurs often try to hit the third shot to a specific spot regardless of where the ball comes back from. If the return came short and centered, the cross-court forehand opens up. If the return came deep and wide, the down-the-line might be the better choice. The geometry of the third shot depends on what the second shot looks like.

Error 3: Trying too much. Amateurs sometimes try to hit a third-shot winner. Most third shots aren’t winners — they are aggressive shots that produce errors on the fourth shot. Trying to end the point with a clean winner on the third ball forces unnecessary errors. The goal is to be aggressive enough to pressure, not necessarily to finish.

How to Train Serve+1

The pattern is built through specific drills, not through hoping it happens in match play.

Drill 1: Cooperative serve+1 (10 minutes). Server hits a serve with a planned target. Partner returns the ball cooperatively. Server hits the planned third shot. Both players know the pattern in advance. The point of the drill is to feel the geometry and timing of the third shot, not to win it.

Drill 2: Live serve+1 with target zones (15 minutes). Server announces target and third-shot target before each serve. Returner returns naturally. Server tries to execute the plan as much as possible, adapting if the return forces it. After each point, brief review: did the pattern execute? If not, why?

Drill 3: Pattern-specific service games (20 minutes). Play full service games where the server is required to attempt a specific pattern (e.g., “Wide deuce + forehand to ad corner”) on every point. Returner is told the pattern. The serve gets harder because the returner anticipates, which simulates the difficulty of executing patterns against good returners.

After 4-6 weeks of this work, a player’s serve games begin to look different. Holds become more efficient. The third shot becomes a deliberate tool rather than a reaction.

When the Pattern Breaks Down

Three situations where serve+1 patterns don’t work:

Situation 1: The opponent reads the pattern. If the returner anticipates the third-shot direction, they can position to defend or counter-attack. Patterns require some unpredictability — the server has to mix targets and intentions to keep the returner uncertain.

Situation 2: The serve doesn’t displace the returner. A weak serve produces a returner who is well-positioned and balanced, and the third-shot pattern depends on the returner being out of position. If the serve doesn’t do its job, the third shot has nothing to attack into.

Situation 3: The server is reactive in body position. If the server’s body is still recovering from the serve motion when the return arrives, they cannot execute a planned forehand in good balance. The serve motion has to finish in a way that allows the third shot to be set up properly.

The fix for all three: the serve and the third shot must be planned together as a unit. The serve target depends on where you want to hit the third shot. The serve motion finishes in the direction needed to set up the third shot. The two shots are one tactical unit.

What This Means for Practice Time Allocation

If serve+1 is the single highest-leverage pattern in modern tennis, the implication is that practice time should reflect its importance. Most amateur programs spend extensive time on serves, some time on returns, and almost no time on serve+1. The allocation is backwards.

A reasonable adjustment: of the time currently spent practicing serves in isolation, devote 30-50% to serve+1 patterns. The serve becomes part of a larger drill rather than a stand-alone shot. The forehand becomes part of the serve sequence rather than a stand-alone ground stroke. Over months, the integration transfers measurably to match play.

One Thing to Do on Court Tomorrow

For ten minutes of your next session, play out service points where you announce both the serve target and the third-shot target before each serve. Make yourself commit to the plan even if it feels uncomfortable. Notice how often the plan executes, how often it adapts, and how often the third shot is in a different place than you expected.

Most players, doing this for the first time, are surprised to realize they have been hitting serves and reacting to returns rather than playing a serve+1 sequence. The pattern is hidden in plain sight at the professional level. Once you see it, you cannot un-see it — and your own service games change.

The serve doesn’t end with contact. The point begins with contact. Train the sequence, not just the serve.

About the author: Emre Köse is a tennis coach at Beykoz Tenis Kulübü in Istanbul, with 12+ years on court. He holds a BSc in Coaching Education from Marmara University, Faculty of Sport Sciences.

Related in this series: The seven major patterns of play · Return+1: countering the serve advantage · The third-shot pattern

Selected reading:

• Reid, M., Morgan, S., & Whiteside, D. (2016). Matchplay characteristics of Grand Slam tennis. Journal of Sports Sciences.
• O’Donoghue, P., & Ingram, B. (2001). A notational analysis of elite tennis strategy. Journal of Sports Sciences.
• Hizan, H., Whipp, P., & Reid, M. (2011). Comparison of serve and serve return statistics of high-performance male and female tennis players. International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport.